Price rises leave milk as a low earner, or loss, for any farmer without pastures

Around 80 per cent of the country’s dairy herd are Friesian cattle, according to KNBS, which are heavy feeders, needing more feed per litre than smaller cattle, such as Jerseys, just to maintain their weight.

A study in Kiambu found cattle producing an average of just under 9 litres a day, and eating 10.5kg of food a day, across commercial feeds and fodder. But much older studies reported cows in Kenya fed around 10kg a day were rapidly losing weight. It’s just too little compared to a Friesian’s normal needs of over 20kg a day.

Yet, immediately prior to the President’s announcement, the prices from Unga, the country’s largest feed manufacturer, were running at Sh2,650 for a 50kg bag of dairy meal plus, equivalent to Sh53 per kg.

Unga advises farmers to use 1kg of feed, at Sh53, for every 2 litres of milk, making for an average of 4.5kg of commercial feed a day, costing Sh238.50, for a cow producing 9 litres a day.

Where the 9 litres of milk earns Sh65 a litre, totalling Sh585, the farmer has spent over 40 per cent of their sales money on concentrate, but they still need to find another 6kg a day of feed for the cow.

Worse, for a farmer earning Sh50 a litre a day, the sum shifts further. They can be spending 53 per cent of their milk money on concentrates. While those earning Sh30 a litre could spend over 88 per cent.

In reality, few farmers use concentrates at the level Unga recommends.

Farmers bulk out feed with Napier grass and other fodder crops, which the El Niño rains are now set to revitalise. But it becomes a balancing act in getting cattle enough protein.

The protein count in everything starts to matter, most aggressively, when Kenya’s feed prices have risen far faster than in other African nations.

A 2024 report by the Competition Authority of Kenya found the country’s heavy imports of raw materials for feed, such as soymeal and sunflower cake, were driving higher pricing, through added transport costs and, sometimes import charges – compared to the cost of the same materials in their home countries of Malawi, Uganda, Tanzania, and Zambia.

But it also found that the country’s four main feed suppliers controlled over 50 per cent of the market, and it reported anti-competitive practices were also contributing to the high feed costs.

Farmers can still solve this squeeze with abundant pasture. But, without it, the pressure to get enough cattle food has pushed farmers into a widening search for high volumes of fodder, and bulky mash.

This sees many lock up acres in Napier that could earn them over Sh200,000 a season growing other crops, instead drawing it in as a ‘free’ food source in order to make any money at all on milk.

Immediate solutions are shifts to more ‘efficient’ smaller cows, such as Jerseys, which farmers typically feed 30 per cent less concentrate to get the same amount of milk.

Or some farmers have accelerated into more efficient fodders, such as high-protein calliandra, and silage, sorghum, and other fillers.

For the quarter to a third of the country’s dairy farmers supplying the state-owned New Kenya Cooperative Creameries and set to get Sh65 a litre, the budget for the rest of their feed, supplements, vaccinations and vet costs is very tight.

But for all the other dairy farmers, Kenya looks set to see a progressive exit and, likely, moves towards importing milk too. Or, it may yet see drives towards greater fodder and cattle efficiency, instead.