By Antynet Ford

A 30 per cent rise in global wheat prices in 2026 and a hold by the Kenyan Ministry of Agriculture on wheat imports for bread flour, is pushing bakeries costs up in brinksmanship that could lift Kenyan bread prices by 10 per cent or more this year.

Kenya imports 95 per cent of its wheat and was last hit when international wheat prices surged, in early 2022, on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which threatened supplies from two of the world’s leading producers. 

Global prices quickly fell again, but settled at a level almost 20 per cent higher than the prewar prices, leading to a 17 per cent rise in Kenyan bread prices.

But the worsening war situation is now destroying large volumes of the cereal, while Kenyan importers are, at the same time, stalled in purchasing on local bureaucracy, keeping them out of a market where the prices are rising rapidly, and also incurring additional storage expenses.

“Every additional day of delay adds demurrage, storage and financing costs which do not benefit the farmer, the miller or the consumer. They are simply additional costs being introduced into the food supply chain,” Cereal Millers Association (CMA) Chief Executive Officer Fernandes Paloma told Capital FM, in an interview.

The administrative delay is in the issuing by the government of a C60 approval for millers to import wheat for bread flour, on the government’s demands the millers must first buy all available local wheat, which they say they have done.

“Millers have fulfilled the requirements of the Local Wheat Purchase Program and committed to purchase local wheat at Sh5,100 per bag. With these commitments in place, we respectfully urge that the necessary import approvals be released at the earliest opportunity,” said Fernandes.

The dispute may rest on a difference of view on the volume of local harvest available, with Kenyan wheat farmers reporting sharp drops in their 2026 production on climate and disease losses to rust, which the government has banned the main control for.

But the timing could not be worse.

Global wheat prices have risen by almost 15 per cent since the beginning of July, despite initial FAO forecasts of stable pricing. The bombing by Ukraine of Russia’s main wheat port cut its harvest-season July exports from 3m tonnes to 1.5m tonnes, while its retaliation hit Ukraine’s last active wheat-exporting port.

The consequent collapse in supply from the two countries has been long warned of, but has hit during a standoff between Kenya’s millers and government that is maximising the likely impact on Kenyan consumers, versus other nations.

“At a time when the global wheat supply chain is once again under pressure, Kenya cannot afford to create an additional bottleneck at home. We should be doing everything possible to secure supplies and keep the cost of food stable, not adding costs through administrative delays,” said Fernandes.

Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the two countries accounted for around 29 per cent of the world’s wheat trade, and over 35 per cent of Kenya’s wheat imports.