By Antynet Ford 

The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) has forecast wetter-than-normal rainfall over central to western Kenya during the March to May (MAM) 2026 season, raising the spectre of further agricultural flooding.

In its seasonal outlook released this week, ICPAC said large parts of the Greater Horn of Africa are likely to experience enhanced rainfall, though conditions will vary across sub-regions, with some areas expected to receive near-normal rainfall while others may face drier conditions or delayed onset of rains.

ICPAC noted that central and western Kenya fall within zones with the highest likelihood of above-average rainfall.

“The regional climate outlook for the March to May (MAM) 2026 rainfall season indicates a 45 per cent probability of wetter-than-normal rainfall conditions over much of the Greater Horn of Africa, including most parts of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, central to western Kenya, Ethiopia, South Sudan, northern Somalia, and Djibouti,” the ICPAC report states in part.

The climate centre further projected that parts of Kenya, particularly the north-eastern and south-western regions, could record near-normal rainfall, alongside areas in South Sudan, Somalia, Tanzania, Uganda and Ethiopia.

“A 40 per cent probability of near-normal rainfall is indicated over western and eastern South Sudan, north-eastern and south-western Kenya, most parts of Somalia, coastal Tanzania, and isolated areas of Uganda and Ethiopia.”

However, ICPAC warned that coastal Kenya may face drier-than-normal conditions, with delayed onset possible in some localised areas.

“Drier-than-normal conditions are expected over coastal parts of Kenya while normal to early onset of rains is expected over most parts of the region, while delayed onset is forecast over localized areas of Ethiopia, South Sudan, and Somalia,” said the report.

ICPAC cautioned that even in areas expected to receive above-normal rainfall, dry spells could still occur, just as wetter spells could occur in zones forecast to be drier.

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“Despite the seasonal outlook, dry spells may still occur in areas forecasted to receive near-normal or above-normal rainfall, and wet spells may occur in areas forecasted to receive near-normal or below-normal rainfall,” it said.

The outlook also points to warmer-than-average temperatures across most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, with stronger warming signals in specific countries and regions, although some Ethiopian highlands could see cooler conditions.

“Warmer-than-average temperatures are expected over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, with higher probabilities over Sudan, Djibouti, Tanzania, and parts of Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya,” it reported..

ICPAC urged governments and partners to prepare and plan to minimise the potential impacts of the forecast weather and strengthen resilience across vulnerable communities.

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