Weather researchers are warning Kenya faces a hot and dry 2025 with rainfall predicted to be at least 20 per cent lower than normal.
January – February – March 2025
According to the Director of Meteorological Services in Kenya David Gikungu, the year’s first three months are expected to be abnormally dry.
Only the highlands West of the Rift Valley, i.e., Kericho, Bomet, Nandi, Kisii, Nyamira, Uasin Gishu and Trans Nzoia counties the Lake Victoria Basin counties of Kisumu, Homa Bay, Siaya, Migori, Busia, Kisii, Nyamira, Kericho, Bomet, Nandi, Kakamega and Vihiga; Central and Southern Rift Valley counties of Nakuru, Baringo, Laikipia, Nyandarua, Kericho, Narok, Kajiado and Bomet will have rain by March.
Temperatures are expected to be abnormally high across the country, hitting a high of 32°C.
According to the weatherman, the drier-than-usual January provides the right conditions for farmers to harvest, dry, and store their crops.
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March to April (MAM) Long Rains
The March to April long rains are expected to be severely below average, (1-20% lower than normal) particularly in the Eastern Kenyan counties of Kitui, Machakos, Makueni Marsabit, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Embu, and Isiolo.
According to the Famine Early Warning Systems Network, the poor rains are likely to impact crop development in April and May negatively.
“The crops planted during the MAM long rains will not have enough water for crop development resulting in below-average yields which will lower staple grain availability and increase staple food prices,” the report read.
The October–November–December (OND) short rains harvest is projected to be 30 percent lower than normal. This will mean the harvest from farmers will run out earlier than usual forcing them to rely on buying their food in markets increasing the demand for food across the country and driving up staple food prices.
The severely below-average rainfall, after a poor OND short rain season will also negatively affect livestock keepers. Both grazing pastures and sources of animal drinking water will not fully recover. This will decrease the health of livestock and their productivity reducing their milk output and the income livestock farmers get from livestock sales.
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“There is likely to be very little water available for both people, livestock, and crop needs, especially in ASAL areas and particularly in the northern parts of the country. Communities in these regions are therefore advised to use the available water sparingly,” Kenya Met David Gikungu
Farmers in areas that receive occasional rainfall are encouraged to harvest rainwater for future use.