The Kenya Meteorological Department has issued a forecast warning that many regions of Kenya will get only four weeks of rain instead of the normal three months threatening to destroy harvests for more than half the country.
Driven by La Niña conditions which bring warmer and drier weather and are expected to continue until early 2025. The months between October and December will be marked by prolonged dry spells and occasional heavy rains, strong winds, coupled with thunder and lightning.
Counties on the Coastal strip (Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu, and the coastal part of Tana River) are expected to receive just 201-400 millimetres of rain lasting one and a half to two months and one week.
Rains will begin in the fourth week of October to the first week of November lasting until the first to the second week of December over the North Coast, and the third-fourth week of December over the South Coast
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Makueni, Kitui, and Machakos counties are expected to receive 301-400 millimetres of rainfall and Tana River county will receive 300-101 millimetres of rain. These rains are expected to last a month and three weeks starting between the fourth week of October to the first week of November to the first and second week of December. The end of December is expected to receive limited occasional rains.
Narok is expected to receive 300-101 millimetres of rain lasting between the fourth week of October/ first week of November to the third to fourth week of December.
Central Kenya counties (Kirinyaga, Nyeri, Murang’a, Nyandarua, Kiambu, Meru, Embu, Tharaka Nithi) and Nairobi expect to receive poor to fair rains largely of between 300 to 800 millimetres. These will last largely for two months starting on the third to fourth week of October and lasting through to the first/ second week of December with occasional rains towards the end of December.
Farmers in Western Counties (Busia, Vihiga, Kakamega, Bungoma); Nyanza Counties (Kisumu, Siaya, Homa Bay, Nyamira, Migori, Kisii); Counties in Central and North Rift Valley; (Kericho, West Pokot, Nandi, Bomet, Uasin Gishu, Trans Nzoia, Nakuru, Laikipia, Elgeyo Marakwet, Baringo) will be among the lucky and can begin planting today as the rains in these counties are expected to be fair to good averaging 600-201 millimetres and is expected to continue from September to the third to fourth week of December.
Turkana and Samburu farmers should also be looking to start planting now as rains in these counties are expected to continue from September. However, they will be much shorter lasting from the fourth week of November through to the first week of December, and much poorer with most of Turkana receiving less than 100mm of rain and Samburu getting 101-300mm.
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The rains in Northeastern counties of Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Marsabit, and Isiolo are expected to be similarly poor. Garissa will get 201-300 millimetres of rain, Wajir, Marsabit, and Mandera will receive 200 to less than 100 millilitres of rain. These rains are predicted to last from the fourth week of October/ the first week of November to the fourth week of November to the first week of December.