By Antynet Ford

Kenya will open its 2026 avocado export season on April 2, ending a delay of many weeks that left exporters locked out of markets and facing rising losses.

The Agriculture and Food Authority (AFA) confirmed the start date today, after weeks without communication, during which only exporters who could negotiate special terms recorded sea shipments, in months that normally launch the season.

In a normal year, Fuerte exports begin in late February and Hass in mid-March, allowing exporters to secure high prices before Peru floods global markets from May. The delayed start now pushes Kenya into direct competition with the peak volumes from other producers.

In Kenya, weather slowed the crop to an unknown degree, with poor rains in September and October 2025 reducing fruit development. At the same time, new avocado oil processors have pulled fruit into the local market. These processors, some backed by aid funding, have created direct competition with exporters but offer far lower prices, at about Sh30 to Sh50 per kg compared to Sh60 to Sh80 per kg from exporters, moving avocado farmers onto a far lower income bracket.

However, exporters now enter the season under heavy external pressure. Disruptions in the Red Sea have extended shipping times to Europe from 20 to 25 days to 40 to 50 days, pushing fresh avocados beyond safe transit limits. As a result, Kenya has already lost its position as Africa’s top avocado exporter to Morocco, which ships directly into the Mediterranean without using the Suez route.

Kenyan exporters had shifted to Middle Eastern markets on the difficulties reaching Europe, but the escalation of conflict involving Iran has destabilised that route as well, disrupting air freight, even as the government delayed approval of sea freight.

The government has remained silent on exporters’ freight and market challenges, and instead focused solely on the maintenance of quality by ensuring fruits have reached sufficient maturity, while also seeming to pull back on quality monitoring. However, this has favoured larger exporters, who could negotiate special terms to ship fruits before the season opened, and left smaller exports blocked, with the situation on fruit maturity also obscured.

The Horticultural Crop Directorate (HCD) today advised that a survey of fruit maturity was done on March 6th. But until that announcement, stakeholders were in the dark.

“The last two years we have seen exporters being called to scout for fruits to assess maturity. This year we were not even aware if there was any scouting activities. Let the government keep in touch with stakeholders in the value chain and give information to farmers so that there is no disconnect and reliance on rumours. Supporting the exporter, is supporting the farmer.”

“The only word that has come is a March 31 meeting where stakeholders will discuss compliance to the export process. How does the government keep quiet when such things are happening? Even though we are exporters, we are still SMEs and avocado is a seasonal product,” said one industry insider.

“With the war, it’s now 40 to 50 days to ship …and that is hurting exporters. The fruits may even go bad before they reach the market. The transit time has affected us and the war is hitting us hard in the avocado sector because now the alternative to Europe was Middle East, but with what is happening, things have got even harder,” said the industry expert.

Until the season officially opens, exporters are only technically allowed to freight by air. For SME exporters this has been a firm rule. But flights are now heavily disrupted, and freight charges have doubled since early March.

“We are being forced to use charter flights and that is very expensive because for something that was costing $1.5per KG is now double, which started at the start of March and this has implications right up until the official opening of the season.”

Flight disruptions has added further risk.

“You may transport the avocado to Nairobi and miss the flight, for example, there’s a flight that Kenya Airways cancelled. This makes exporters vulnerable,” said the industry source. The delayed opening had even left exporters unable to quote prices or secure orders.

“We are expecting the war to calm a little, but until the season opens, there can’t even be a conclusive discussion with the buyer. For now, you can’t even give a quote as things are, with no shipping yet allowed and airfreight options shifting hourly. The discussion starts with the price but we have to know the freight and fruit costs first.”

The combined impact has further erodes Kenya’s competitive window.

“Before what just hit us, even a small SME could do a container or two every week. With just one container in a week and four in a month for an SME, that was big…but now in 2026, February count Zero, March, Zero, because we are yet to start. The more we have not started, we are going to April then the traditional big competitors will start coming to the market by the end of April going to May. Even if we are to go to Europe which is our remaining alternative, we will get there when they are already there. It is a blow to us because for them, you’ll find them offloading 400-500 containers every week. This makes the prices go down. Kenya has never been able to export much to Europe within May because the price will be like €5 and that’s the price up to Mombasa!”

This is even seeing Kenyan exporters lose ground to European exporters serving Africa.

“Netherlands exports avocado to Nigeria because they import from other countries from their continent and then export to now even Africa. African Countries should talk to each other for the same. The business infrastructure should be made easy because as it is now, it is not easy because you’ll find that exporting to a country in West Africa may cost $4 or $5 per kg and that’s not easy. The infrastructure in Europe is easy and dependable making things easier for Netherlands in this case.”.

“There is a lot of scope for African countries to trade among themselves but we need, rail, air or sea charges to be made affordable to achieve that.”

“There have also been little efforts to market internally yet even the people who import it because of the health benefits, which are healthy for our people too.”

But exporters remain cautious about new markets such as China and India.

“We all saw the call for submission for export to India and China, which are new markets, but the thing is, are they reliable? Will we be able to meet their set regulations, like for example fumigation as required for India?  Do we have the capacity?”

Almost no Kenyan avocado packhouses have the right fumigation technology for these requirements at the moment.

“ And many avocados does Chinese consume in a year? Europe knows how to maintain the fruits when they receive them, how to ripen etc, but does China?”

“From the disruption, we are learning to prepare for change and adapt other appropriate measures because change will always be coming. Also being flexible by changing the export products is necessary. Farmers should also diversify not to depend on avocado, as it is seasonal hence they should also try other crops too, even as they produce avocado,”

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