By Antynet Ford

Farmers who delayed purchasing fertiliser for the ongoing long rains are now paying nearly double compared to those who bought earlier, as global supply disruptions linked to the war involving Iran begin to filter into local markets.

Speaking to Farmbiz Africa, Judith Mutie, a farmer in Lugari, Kakamega County, said growers who postponed land preparation and planting are now facing sharply higher input costs.

She noted that fertiliser prices in her area have risen to over Sh6,000 per bag, compared to between Sh3,000 and Sh4,000 for those who bought in January, February, or early March ahead of the planting season.

“Currently, if you purchase outside the NCPB, it is over Sh6,000. For those who were buying at the end of February or even earlier, they were getting it at between Sh3,000 and Sh4,000. Now the prices are double, and even a few hundred shillings more,” she said.

Mutie added that farmers attempting to access subsidized fertiliser through the National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB) are facing long queues and uncertain availability.

“There are those who purchased from the NCPB in bulk and started selling it in retail shops. Initially, they only added Sh100 or Sh200. But now even the Lugari NCPB has shortages, and the lines are very long. You may get it or not. If you opt for retail stores, it is again too expensive,” she said.

Her experience reflects early signs of a broader fertiliser price shock that analysts warn is building following disruptions to global supply chains.

Research by Farmbiz Africa shows that between now and June, prices for fertiliser already in the country or in transit will continue rising, even as farmers who secured inputs early remain shielded. Those still buying are expected to face significantly higher costs.

The outlook for the second half of the year is more uncertain. Between July and December 2026, replacement shipments are projected to arrive at higher costs and face longer shipping times, raising the risk of supply shortages during the short rains planting season.

“If the conflict is prolonged, Kenya’s lack of strategic reserves and near-total import dependency leaves it structurally exposed. Alternative supply routes from Morocco through OCP Africa and domestic blending could partially compensate but not fully replace Gulf supply,” the research notes.

The crisis stems from disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping route. Since the escalation of conflict in late February, traffic through the strait has dropped by more than 95 per cent, from about 130 ships per day to single digits in early March, according to UNCTAD.

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The impact is significant because roughly one-third of global seaborne fertiliser trade and about 46 per cent of global urea supply originates from Gulf countries. UNCTAD has identified Kenya among the most exposed African nations due to its heavy reliance on these imports.

The situation echoes the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war, which caused fertiliser prices in Africa to remain elevated long after global prices had eased.

Research published last year shows that sub-Saharan Africa experienced a longer and more severe fertiliser price spike than other regions, with prices still high in many countries as of mid-2024. Analysts warn that the current disruption could have an even greater impact, as the Persian Gulf accounts for a larger share of global fertiliser trade than Russia.

According to the African fertiliser and Agribusiness Partnership, Africa’s smallholder farmers are particularly vulnerable, as they already operate under tight margins and have limited access to affordable inputs.

Kenya’s structural weaknesses further heighten the risk. The country has no strategic fertiliser reserves to cushion against supply shocks, while domestic production remains limited to blending imported raw materials rather than manufacturing.

As a result, global disruptions are quickly transmitted into local markets, leaving farmers exposed to rising costs and uncertain supply at critical planting periods.

Additional research and reporting by Grace Zawadi for FarmBizAfrica

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