By Antynet Ford

The Kenya Meteorological Services Authority(KMSA) has issued the long-range weather forecast for the 2026 short season in Kenya, taking a conservative view on the approaching El Niño season by predicting fair to good rain, as the government elsewhere warns of severe flooding ahead.

Predicting the onset of the rains in September in Western Kenya and parts of the Rift Valley, from the second week of October in Central, and from the third and fourth week of October in the North Eastern, Eastern and Coast regions, the weather service forecasts that Turkana, Samburu, Wajir, Marsabit, Mandera, Garissa and Isiolo would be the last to receive rains.

The service was muted over the scale of rain ahead.

“The OND 2026 rainfall is expected to be fairly to well distributed, both in time and space, over several parts of the country, except over Turkana and Samburu where the distribution is likely to be poor to fair. This season will be marked by prolonged wet spells and occasional isolated storms over several parts of the country,” forecast KMSA.

Kenya is one of the three countries in the world traditionally most affected by El Niño seasons, due to its positioning facing the Pacific, on the equator. The strength of each El Niño is driven in large part by the scale of the temperature rise in the Pacific Ocean, with the current El Niño shaping up to be severe.

“According to the most recent update, the 2026 El Niño event continues to intensify across the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. The traditional Niño 3.4 index shows a clear and sustained increase, with the most recent seasonal mean reaching +1.51 °C during May-July 2026. and the July monthly value rising to +2.03 °C. The latest weekly Niño 3.4 index, centred on 12 August reached +2.7 °C. These observations indicate that El Niño is strengthening further and evolving toward a very strong event,” reported the KMSA.

This has been presented as a more severe risk by the government than fair to good rains.

The Ministry of Interior and National Administration recently issued an El Niño warning saying farmers in 18 counties in the Coastal, Lake Basin, Rift Valley and North Eastern regions are at high risk of floods, landslides, disease outbreaks, livestock losses and food insecurity.

“In the Coast Region, Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu, Mombasa and Kwale may experience flooding, storm surges, coastal erosion and infrastructure damages. Residents of some areas in the region may be displaced by floods.”

“In the Lake Basin region, Kisumu, Busia, Siaya, Homa Bay and Migori are expected to experience flooding, landslides, disease outbreaks and cases of displacements,” the ministry said.

 “Risks identified for the urban centres of Nairobi, Mombasa, Kisumu include flooding, drainage blockages, infrastructure strain and service disruptions,” it said. 

 “In the Rift Valley Region, counties such as Turkana, Baringo, West Pokot and Narok may experience drought, flash floods, landslides, livestock losses and food insecurity. The North Eastern Region counties of Garissa, Wajir and Mandera may experience drought, water scarcity, livestock losses, poor pasture and food insecurity,” the ministry said.

The last El Niño, in the 2023 short-rains season, affected 38 counties and destroyed over 25,000 acres of farmland, according to the Kenya Meteorological Department, which reported ¾ million households affected, across thousands of livestock deaths, crops lost, and families displaced.

The 2026 El Niño has been forecast globally to be one of the most severe on record, and probably as strong in Kenya as the 1997-1998 and 2015 to 2016 El Niños.

As farmers now prepare for the season, the main risks for crop farmers are waterlogged fields, a surge in fungal and bacterial diseases, and depleted soils, with the best protection being to dig ditches that can drain water away more quickly, and to move livestock to higher land.