By Antynet Ford

Heavy rains since Christmas Eve have renewed hope among smallholder farmers in Busia, Kakamega, Kisumu, Migori, Homa Bay, parts of Vihiga County, and eastern Kenya, following fears of poor yields during the October–November–December (OND) season after a prolonged dry spell.

Before the rains, many farmers had been staring at the possibility of total crop failure. The dry conditions had set in shortly after planting, causing cereals and maize, the region’s staple foods, to struggle. Irregular weather patterns left crops at different and uncertain growth stages: some maize fields wilted prematurely, others showed early signs of drying, while a few remained stunted with unclear prospects.

With the onset of the short rains last week, farmers now say there is renewed optimism that at least part of the crop can be salvaged. According to the Kenya Meteorological Department (Kenya Met), the rains that began on Christmas Eve are expected to continue through the end of this week, improving soil moisture and crop recovery in affected regions.

Zipporah Okoth, a smallholder farmer in Homa Bay County, said she had almost lost hope of harvesting anything after weeks of drought following the planting of maize for the second season in early November.

According to Zipporah, from the rains, in the next two months the maize shall be ready for harvest.

“We planted this last month and we were almost losing hope with the drought but here are the rains. We have hope we will eat boiled maize in February,” she said.

In Kakamega County, Julius Mmasi, a farmer in Butere, said he had initially expected a bumper harvest from his one-acre farm before the drought set in and the maize began to wither. While the recent rains have brought relief, he said, the losses may not be fully recovered.

“The rains in the last one week have been very timely because I was staring at the loss of maize in a one acre. Things will change, but the harvest will not be bumper. It will only be for food, the beans could have been plenty were it not for the drought. I would have made a good fortune.”

He said the financial losses have been significant.

“Its unfortunate because I had used over Sh7,000 for the fertilizer and seeds, but now I may not even get half of it as this will only be for food for my family. Either way, I have learnt that the short OND rains cannot be depended on all the time. I will be keen next season when determining what to plant during that season next year. It should be crops that can do better whether there are rains or not. Crops that also mature within a short period.”

The prolonged drought had forced some farmers to cut down severely wilted maize plants that could no longer produce grain, using the stalks as livestock feed instead.

“The prolonged dry conditions have resulted in almost total crop failure in some areas. This directly threatens food availability and household incomes,” he said.

Agricultural experts and extension officers have continued to urge farmers to adapt to changing climatic conditions by adopting drought-resilient practices, including planting early-maturing maize varieties, using low-water-demand seed varieties, improving soil moisture conservation through mulching, and diversifying crops. Alternatives such as sorghum, millet, cassava, and legumes are increasingly recommended to enhance food security during unpredictable short rain seasons.

Earlier this month, reports warned that the prolonged dry spell could trigger food insecurity in parts of Nyanza, particularly Kisumu, Siaya, Homa Bay, and Migori counties, where crop performance had been notably poor.

Currently, maize in these areas is retailing at Sh110 per 2-kg tin, with projections that prices could rise further in January when schools reopen and demand increases.

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Meanwhile, Kenya Met has continued to issue rainfall advisories. In its five-day weather outlook for December 23–27, the department forecast rainfall across Central Kenya, Western Kenya, the Lake Victoria Basin, the Rift Valley, and parts of the Coast. Heavy rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms was expected in parts of the Lake Basin, Rift Valley, and Western Kenya on Tuesday, December 23, with the intensity projected to ease gradually through Saturday, December 27.

Kenya Met said the affected regions would continue to experience isolated storms and heavy rains between December 30, 2025, and Saturday, January 3, 2026.

“Occasional rainfall is expected to continue over a few areas at the beginning of the week, particularly in the Highlands east and west of the Rift Valley, the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, parts of the Northwest, Northeast, the Coastal region, and the south-eastern lowlands,” Kenya Met announced.

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