The East Africa region is expected to have a net surplus of 1,700,000MT of maize in marketing year (MY) 2023/24. This is 119 per cent higher than last year and 46 per cent more than the five-year (2018 to 2022) average.
The region is projected to have a surplus maize supply 45 per cent above the recent five-year average.
Regional maize production is projected to be nine and 11 per cent above the recent five-year average, driven mainly by a 26 per cent above-average production in surplus-producing Tanzania stemming from favourable weather, increased acreage, and usage of subsidized fertilizer. The exportable surplus in Tanzania is expected to be 36 per cent above average.
In the deficit-producing countries, production is expected to be average in Kenya and seven, 15, and 17 percent above average in Rwanda, Burundi, and Somalia because of El-Nino-related good rainfall performance.
The maize deficit in Burundi, Kenya, and South Sudan is expected to be 159, 68, and 16 percent lower than the 2017/22 average decreasing the regional shortfall.
Maize prices are starting to dip below the five-year average in deficit-producing countries. These price declines are driven by average to above-average harvests across most countries, with a significant surplus in Tanzania which reduced shortfalls in the deficit-producing countries of Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Rwanda, and Burundi.
Cross-border trade also declined due to availability in consumption countries and low-price differentials.